HL-IRRI
The Hyper-Local Integrated Risk & Resilience Index scores places — H3 cells of about one square kilometre, rolled up to villages and wards. It does not replace the TIA Score, which still scores assessed properties under TIM v1.0.
Net risk is threat the place cannot absorb
Cell Net Risk = Threat_Score × (1 − Resilience_Score)
Threat is 1–10 across eight hazards. Resilience is 0–1 (absorb, adapt, recover, transform). A high-threat, high-resilience cell can print below a quieter cell that cannot take a hit. Worked example: threat 7.5, resilience 0.3 → net 5.25, band Elevated.
Published math. Sparse grid. Honest feeds.
Non-polar land at H3 resolution 8 is on the order of ten million cells. HL-IRRI materialises a cell only when an observation exists. A print for an empty cell is ineligible, not a default “safe”. The full 691 million-cell address space — ocean included — is visualised as a GPU field at /bureau/hl-irri/globe, not as stored polygons.
Spatial “GNN” is one-hop message passing with published α = 0.15, then physics constraints (flood routes downstream; grid parents lift cyber). Temporal “transformer” is a published softmax over hour/day/week lags. Coefficients change as a new version, the same rule as TIM.
Every cell print hashes to a Merkle leaf. A compute tick commits one tree head to the Bureau transparency log. That head is what an L2 anchor would carry. Per-cell hourly L1 writes are neither cheaper nor more trustless.
Individual-identifying inputs are rejected. Public prints that rest on property-derived crime or TIA scores are suppressed below k = 10. This is a hazard-and-resilience index of geography, not a neighbourhood score of residents.
Declared sources, live versus unwired
| Dimension | Source | Cadence |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict | ACLED-shaped events via hl_irri_place_events (live adapter) | Hourly |
| Natural hazards | Flood/cyclone/fire/quake store (live). NASA remote pull still unwired. | Sub-daily |
| Crime | Bureau crime_events store (live, cell-aggregated) | Hourly |
| Cyber | Shodan / Shadowserver (declared; unwired) | Daily |
| Economic | Night lights, PortWatch (declared; unwired) | Weekly |
| Health | WHO outbreak alerts (declared; unwired) | Daily |
| Resilience | Pilot-attested priors + TIA panel under k-anonymity | Quarterly / daily |
Unwired feeds do not emit a number. An evaluate call may supply caller-attested observations; the print states completeness and will mark itself ineligible when evidence is thin.
Same cell, named sub-indices
Crime + flood/fire hazard + market stability
Natural hazard + infrastructure + health
Infrastructure + conflict + trade disruption
Hazard + conflict + health + social
Cyber + grid dependence + conflict
Five countries, sixty observed cells, k = 10
The v0.1 book is sparse on purpose: twelve observed cells each in Bangladesh, Kenya, Brazil, Indonesia, and Germany. A public country print requires ten eligible cells. The US series is published too — and will print as suppressed until the US book clears the same floor. That is not a zero-risk United States.
TIM v1.0 remains the TIA Score issuer. HL-IRRI cannot be promoted to issue property scores until it has its own loss-calibration record.
Standing we do not claim
HL-IRRI is not a UN, World Bank, or NATO reference. It is not wired into Zillow. It is not an authority, and the Bureau still is not a separate legal person. Those are outcomes of coverage, loss evidence, and a counterparty putting the number in a contract — the same path as the TIA Score. v0.1 is the formula, the grid, the audit trail, and the API a pilot can run.
Implicit H3 compute globe → · TIA Score methodology → · Model versions →